Every business that has run out of cash had a moment, weeks earlier, when the outcome was visible and still avoidable. The 13-week forecast is the tool that makes that moment show up on a spreadsheet instead of in a bank alert. It is the first thing we build for a new virtual CFO client and the report we would keep if we could keep only one.
Why thirteen weeks and why weekly
A quarter is long enough to see the payroll cycles, the quarterly tax dates and the seasonal dip, and short enough that the numbers are concrete rather than guesses. Weekly matters because cash problems are timing problems: the month may be fine in total and the second Friday still unable to make payroll.
The structure
Columns are weeks, starting from this week. Rows:
- Opening cash (actual bank balances, all accounts, less anything not really yours such as sales tax collected).
- Receipts: collections from existing invoices by expected week; recurring subscription receipts; platform payouts by settlement schedule; new sales not yet invoiced, shown separately and discounted; other inflows (loans, owner contributions, refunds).
- Payments: payroll by pay date, including employer taxes and the deposit dates; rent and fixed commitments; supplier bills by due date; contractors; software and card spend from the recurring pattern; inventory purchases; loan repayments; tax payments (estimates, sales tax, payroll deposits); owner draws.
- Net movement and closing cash, which becomes next week's opening.
- Minimum cash line: the balance below which you have decided to act. The forecast's job is to show the first week that crosses it.
Where the numbers come from
Receivables and payables ageing from the accounting file, with expected dates adjusted for how each customer actually pays (the 30-day customer who pays at 45 goes at 45). Payroll from the payroll calendar. Recurring costs from the last three months' bank feed. Tax dates from the calendar. Pipeline from the CRM, weighted. The first version takes a few hours; the weekly update takes thirty minutes.
Uncertain receipts
Show them in a separate row and forecast two closing lines: one with confirmed receipts only, one including expected. The gap between them is the size of the bet the business is making each week. Large customers who pay late are the usual cause of the gap and the first place to push.
The Friday routine
- Replace last week's forecast with actuals; note the variance and why.
- Roll the window forward one week; add week fourteen.
- Update receivables and payables from the file.
- Look at the first week the closing balance crosses the minimum, and at the confirmed-only line.
- Decide: chase specific invoices, delay specific payments, draw on a line, defer a hire, or nothing this week.
What it changes
Hiring decisions get made with a date attached. Tax payments stop being surprises. Owners stop putting personal money in on a Thursday. Lenders and investors take a business more seriously when it can show this report, because it is the one that demonstrates the owner knows where the money is going. And the profit and loss becomes more useful, because the difference between profit and cash movement is visible week by week.
The check: without looking at your bank, can you say what the balance will be on the last Friday of next month, to within ten percent? If not, this is the report to build this week.